I don’t actually remember when I learned it: but I remember learning the fact about Presidential debates that we probably all remember learning. The fact that they didn’t used to matter, until the first televised Presidential debate, in 1960, between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon. That debate was important, I was taught, because Kennedy won it: because Nixon looked bad. Nixon was recovering from the flu, and refused makeup, and so he looked flushed and sweaty, where Kennedy looked dashing and charming. I remember learning that, while people who watched the debate on TV thought Kennedy won, people who listened to the debate on the radio thought that Nixon won: because Nixon, for all he looked sweaty and nervous, actually gave better answers to the questions. (By the way: I have to point out that the Kennedy-Nixon debates started with opening statements that were EIGHT MINUTES long. Can you even imagine either one of these two 2024 candidates giving a coherent eight-minute speech? I assume the 1960 candidates had a teleprompter for that opening statement, but still.) I remember that when I learned that, I thought it was funny; and I was sort of glad of it, because, of course, Nixon was an awful President, and Kennedy was much better — so it was a good thing that Nixon lost that debate. Right?

Right?

I was reminded of this recently when I watched Biden lose his debate against Trump: and then — only then — did it really hit me. No, it was not a good thing that Kennedy won that debate. We should never select our leaders based on appearances, based only on the surface level qualities — based on style over substance. Sure, I guess Kennedy was a good President; he was certainly a better person than Nixon, so I’m glad that Kennedy won the election — though I will say that Nixon actually did a number of good things while he was in office; just not enough to counterbalance the bad, mainly because he was the one who pushed the Southern Strategy on the Republican party, ensuring that they would lean hard into both the evangelical vote and the white nationalist vote, and because of Watergate and the deterioration of norms and standards like “The President should FOLLOW THE FUCKING LAW” — but the fact that Kennedy “won” a debate, despite having presented the lesser argument, because he was better-looking on TV? I hate that. Because that’s style over substance: and that’s bullshit.

And while I was watching the Biden-Trump debate, and cringing, and cradling my head in my hands, and cursing both under my breath and out loud, while I watched Joe Biden reveal the depths of his infirmity, I realized: that’s style over substance, too.

And it should not determine our choice for who gets our vote in November.

No, it’s not that simple. Yes, Biden did more than look bad, he revealed that he has weaknesses; I’m not about to excuse them — I wish he would step aside because of those weaknesses. He won’t, though, and it’s a problem. It’s a problem both for the election and for the administration after it: because if he wins, we will have a President with diminished capacity for four years. Let’s not imagine that no serious crises will happen in that time which would require more immediate resources of cognitive capacity than Biden apparently has.

But see, that’s where the problem lies: in appearances.

As I said, Biden should step aside. He should bow out with dignity, accepting that his best effort isn’t good enough, what we need is an actual candidate who can actually beat Donald Trump, someone who can energize — hell, anyone. Some independents, some core blue voters, some non-white non-majority groups; anybody. Biden excites literally no one. Which puts us all at risk: and why? Because ol’ Scranton Joe “truly believes” that he is the best person to beat Donald Trump.

I don’t doubt that he believes it, with all his heart, quite sincerely. He’s just wrong, is all. He may be able to beat Trump: but he’s not the best person, because right at this moment he’s gone from kinda losing in the polls to definitely losing, and there’s no clear way for him to make up that ground in time to win the election. It still might happen, he still might beat Trump: but he’s not the best candidate to do it, not any more.

The election isn’t actually about soothing Joe Biden’s ego, and it isn’t about helping him prove to the whole wide world that he’s still got it. This election is about stopping the MAGA movement that actually literally wants to destroy the country as it exists currently; and for that, Joe Biden should not be the nominee. I know he wants to fight Trump, and he wants to beat Trump: but if he helps the Dems to transition to a successor — most obvious is Kamala Harris but I’m open to other suggestions — then he is helping to beat Donald Trump, and he would absolutely be remembered for being instrumental in winning that fight. He should withdraw from the race, make a speech, and go down in history; and the Democrats should hold an open primary at the convention, then pull out all the stops for whoever wins the most delegates. I don’t care who it is (As long as it isn’t Marianne Williamson), because the excitement coming out of that convention, and the change from Biden to a younger, more vigorous person will help bring out the votes to beat Trump. That’s what should happen.

But you see, the reason why that should happen is because of how bad Joe Biden looked at the debate. That’s why. It’s not the only reason: he’s uniquely unpopular, because he’s a shitty candidate and always has been; but the truth is he’s done a good job as President. The Inflation Reduction Act, the infrastructure bill, the CHIPS act, restoring the economy after the pandemic, supporting NATO and Ukraine — he’s done a really good job, especially in comparison with his predecessor and current opponent. Putting that record against Donald Trump’s should be more than enough to win the election, in the end.

It’s not. Because he looked bad. Not because he said bad things: but because he looked bad — while saying (mostly) good things.

It’s style over substance. It’s his appearance that is actually making the difference in the campaign going forward; if he looked better, sounded better, if the number of his age was about five lower (And age is just a number, so the number is part of appearances as well), he’d be able to overcome his drawbacks and he’d win, I’d have no doubt. Now I have doubt: and it’s because of what I see people saying about the race because of how Biden looked. How he sounded. His appearance, at the debate. Not his ideas, not really what he said: just how he looks, how he sounds, what we associate — what we assume — with someone who is his age.

That is unacceptable. Always. It was back in 1960, and it is now. We should be willing to look past how someone looks and how someone sounds, and examine carefully who they actually are: what they stand for, what they will do to and for the country. We do it all the time in other areas of our lives: we buy fixer-upper houses and project cars; we choose life partners who are good companions, not simply the hottest person available; we buy discount and clearance items that might be slightly less than perfect. Some of us — like, say, Donald Trump — only go for the surface appeal, but that should tell you how empty and terrible it is to do that: do we really want our country to be in any way like the relationship of Donald and Melania Trump?

But then, when it comes to choosing people to run the country, almost everybody picks based on surface traits: and we just accept it, don’t we? We just say to each other, “He looks terrible — he probably can’t do the job.” We watch videos of people stumbling and tripping and fumbling, whether it is over their words or over their feet. We make fun of how Donald Trump stands, how he dances, what his looks like, what his skin looks like. We mock both men for how they speak: not what they say, but how they say it. We talk, with all seriousness, about which candidate looks Presidential.

I don’t even know what the fuck that means. What is it to look Presidential? Wouldn’t it be true that anyone who was the President automatically looked Presidential? Does it really come down to who has a neater haircut and cleaner clothes? Who has a bigger nose, or a squarer jaw? Do we care about the President’s tailor, or their clothing budget? Do we care about their weight? About their height?

Apparently, we do. Because that’s how many of us make our voting decisions. No considerations: just vibes.

Here. Let’s try an experiment. Let’s try the other side of this equation. Let’s look at the substance.

**I am not going to ignore the signs of cognitive decline, like that moment that has been soundbited (Soundbitten?) so universally, when Biden froze and then ended by saying “We beat Medicare.” We’ll get to that. But stick with me for now. Don’t focus on a single soundbite.

This is the transcript of the debate. Please read all of it, if you are interested and concerned about the actual issues in this election; but here I’m just going to quote the responses to the first question. (Let me note here, as I have noted elsewhere, that our willingness to blame or credit the President alone with the state of the economy is freaking ridiculous; nothing the President does makes much of a difference in the economy. Congress passing laws regarding taxes or regulations have more influence, but the economy is much larger than most tax laws or regulations can encompass, and while some parts of the economy may be strongly affected by specific actions in Washington, other parts will be entirely separate. Also, things that the government does often take years to actually have an impact: so every time, a President’s economy is mainly the economy of his predecessor. The economy of the Trump years was built by Obama; Biden’s economy was built mainly by Trump; the next economy will be the result of these last four years. And still not really because of the President’s actions alone. The President does nothing alone: please remember that. But regardless, good actions for the economy are good actions, so here it is.)

JAKE TAPPER: President Biden, inflation has slowed, but prices remain high. Since you took office, the price of essentials has increased. For example, a basket of groceries that cost $100 then, now costs more than $120; and typical home prices have jumped more than 30 percent.

What do you say to voters who feel they are worse off under your presidency than they were under President Trump?

BIDEN:  You have to take a look at what I was left when I became president, what Mr. Trump left me.

We had an economy that was in freefall. The pandemic are so badly handled, many people were dying. All he said was, it’s not that serious. Just inject a little bleach in your arm. It’d be all right.

The economy collapsed. There were no jobs. Unemployment rate rose to 15 percent. It was terrible.

And so, what we had to do is try to put things back together again. That’s exactly what we began to do. We created 15,000 new jobs. We brought on – in a position where we have 800,000 new manufacturing jobs.

But there’s more to be done. There’s more to be done. Working class people are still in trouble.

I come from Scranton, Pennsylvania. I come from a household where the kitchen table – if things weren’t able to be met during the month was a problem. Price of eggs, the price of gas, the price of housing, the price of a whole range of things.

That’s why I’m working so hard to make sure I deal with those problems. And we’re going to make sure that we reduce the price of housing. We’re going to make sure we build 2 million new units. We’re going to make sure we cap rents, so corporate greed can’t take over.

The combination of what I was left and then corporate greed are the reason why we’re in this problem right now.

In addition to that, we’re in a situation where if you had – take a look at all that was done in his administration, he didn’t do much at all. By the time he left, there’s – things had been in chaos. There was (ph) literally chaos.

And so, we put things back together. We created, as I said, those (ph) jobs. We made sure we had a situation where we now – we brought down the price of prescription drugs, which is a major issue for many people, to $15 for – for an insulin shot, as opposed to $400. No senior has to pay more than $200 for any drug – all the drugs they (inaudible) beginning next year.

And the situation is making – and we’re going to make that available to everybody, to all Americans. So we’re working to bring down the prices around the kitchen table. And that’s what we’re going to get done.

Okay: there are some stumbles there, but this is a man with a stutter. Ignore those little slips, as long as he got back on message and made his points.

Look at his points: he was handed a shit show of an economy, coming out of the pandemic (True), which Trump fucked up royally. But they went to work, and created millions of jobs, including 800,000 manufacturing jobs (Both true, the 15 million figure and the 800,000, though it’s also true that many of those jobs were layoffs from the pandemic which people were re-hired for. But also, successfully getting people back to work? That counts, for me.) He knows there is more to be done: he speaks to his own past growing up in a household that had to make ends meet, so he understands the pain we’re all going through, and then he identifies, correctly, the cause of the inflation apart from the pandemic: corporate greed. He points out other places that he has fought corporate greed, specifically big pharma and insulin; and it’s a damn good point.

That’s a good answer. That is an answer with substance.

Now here’s what Trump said.

 We had the greatest economy in the history of our country. We had never done so well. Every – everybody was amazed by it. Other countries were copying us.

We got hit with COVID. And when we did, we spent the money necessary so we wouldn’t end up in a Great Depression the likes of which we had in 1929. By the time we finished – so we did a great job. We got a lot of credit for the economy, a lot of credit for the military, and no wars and so many other things. Everything was rocking good.

But the thing we never got the credit for, and we should have, is getting us out of that COVID mess. He created mandates; that was a disaster for our country.

But other than that, we had – we had given them back a – a country where the stock market actually was higher than pre-COVID, and nobody thought that was even possible. The only jobs he created are for illegal immigrants and bounceback jobs; they’re bounced back from the COVID.

He has not done a good job. He’s done a poor job. And inflation’s killing our country. It is absolutely killing us.

Greatest economy in the history of the world, huh? Since our current economy is better, that’s false. Every time Trump says “Everyone was amazed by it,” assume it’s a lie; it is. Everybody wants our wealth: but our economy is actually a shit show, as evidenced by the income inequality and wealth disparities. Most other countries know why that’s bad, and they work to avoid getting into the hole we’re in. I appreciate that he owns up to spending trillions of dollars to keep the economy afloat, but if you’re going to argue (I don’t agree, but Trump has argued) that money from the government increased inflation, then you should own your own contribution to the inflation. “No wars” my ass; warlike actions and policies likely to increase tensions leading to war are not the same as being peaceful. Trump assassinated an Iranian general, after ending the pact that kept Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons; he backed Israel over Palestine, which, along with pissing off Iran, exacerbated the tensions that helped create the current situation in Gaza (which he blames Biden for); he personally tried to start wars with North Korea and with China by insulting their leaders; he threatened NATO and fucked with the Ukraine while supporting Putin every way he could, TO THIS DAY; he pulled out of the Paris Climate Accord and promoted fossil fuels while destroying the environment: which will most definitely help create wars in the future as people grow more desperate over climate change; he continued the wars in Afghanistan and in Syria. Trump did not get credit for getting us out of COVID because he fuckin didn’t: his administration put in place the shutdowns and promoted the creation of the vaccines, which were instrumental in coming out of the pandemic — but that was despite Trump’s best efforts to fuck everything up; and you don’t get credit for solving a problem you created, which is absolutely the story of the pandemic that Trump blew off for the first three months, when a more careful and rational approach would have saved thousands of lives.

And apart from the lies (But not more important: because while no politician tells the whole truth and nothing but the truth, the quantity and sheer unreality of Trump’s lies are unmatched by anyone else in public life, let alone in American politics), look at what he says here. It’s fluff. The “greatest economy.” That shit he always does about adding how other people perceive and talk about his actions — everybody was amazed by it, we got credit or didn’t get credit, nobody believed that was even possible; nobody gives a shit what other people thought about how awesome you are, Donny, we care about what you actually did. And what did he say here about what they actually did?

He says they spent the money. That’s it. The rest is vague opinion. And talking shit about Biden, also unfounded — sure, pal, it was the vaccine mandate that was the disaster, not THE ACTUAL FUCKING DISASTER.

Rebuttal, Mr. President?

BIDEN:  Well, look, the greatest economy in the world, he’s the only one who thinks that, I think. I don’t know anybody else who thinks it was great – he had the greatest economy in the world.

And, you know, the fact of the matter is that we found ourselves in a situation where his economy – he rewarded the wealthy. He had the largest tax cut in American history, $2 trillion. He raised the deficit larger than any president has in any one term. He’s the only president other than Herbert Hoover who has lost more jobs than he had when he began, since Herbert Hoover. The idea that he did something that was significant.

And the military – you know, when he was president, they were still killing people in Afghanistan. He didn’t do anything about that. When he was president, we still found ourselves in a position where you had a notion that we were this safe country. The truth is, I’m the only president this century that doesn’t have any – this – this decade – doesn’t have any troops dying anywhere in the world, like he did.

All true. The bit about Herbert Hoover is a weird dig when we all know that Trump lost jobs because of the pandemic, not just because he was a dolt; he is a dolt, but before the pandemic the economy had created almost 7 million jobs during Trump’s term, so there’s serious context there with that statistic which shouldn’t be left out — and the comment about how Biden doesn’t have any troops dying anywhere is false, because troops have died, in Afghanistan, under Biden; it is also callous and meaningless when we are funding two enormously devastating proxy wars. Like I said, Biden isn’t a great candidate, he isn’t the best president, and like any politician he is shading the truth to serve himself.

But he is speaking the truth, and answering questions, and sticking to the subject. And as I hope you’re seeing, when you look at the words and don’t listen to his voice or look at his face, then these are good answers.

As for Trump?

TAPPER:  President Trump, I want to follow up, if I can. You wanted…

TRUMP:  Am I allowed to respond to him?

TAPPER:  Well, I’m going to ask you a follow-up. You can do whatever you want with the minute that we give you.

I want to follow up. You want to impose a 10 percent tariff on all goods coming into the U.S. How will you ensure that that doesn’t drive prices even higher?

TRUMP:  Not going to drive them higher. It’s just going to cause countries that have been ripping us off for years, like China and many others, in all fairness to China – it’s going to just force them to pay us a lot of money, reduce our deficit tremendously, and give us a lot of power for other things.

But he – he made a statement. The only thing he was right about is I gave you the largest tax cut in history. I also gave you the largest regulation cut in history. That’s why we had all the jobs. And the jobs went down and then they bounced back and he’s taking credit for bounceback jobs. You can’t do that.

He also said he inherited 9 percent inflation. No, he inherited almost no inflation and it stayed that way for 14 months. And then it blew up under his leadership, because they spent money like a bunch of people that didn’t know what they were doing. And they don’t know what they were doing. It was the worst – probably the worst administration in history. There’s never been.

And as far as Afghanistan is concerned, I was getting out of Afghanistan, but we were getting out with dignity, with strength, with power. He got out, it was the most embarrassing day in the history of our country’s life.

Sigh. Okay, the tariff thing is a lie, and I hope we all know that by now; tariffs are costs that get passed on to the purchaser, the consumer, like every other increase in production costs. Hmmmm — almost like inflation, huh? While some Chinese companies shouldered the additional cost, most didn’t, and since China put tariffs on US goods, mostly agricultural products, in retaliation, any benefit from Trump’s tariffs should be offset by the loss of, say, soybean sales, which largely moved to Brazil.

The Trump tax cut was not the biggest in history (though it was the biggest cut in corporate taxes in US history). Were his tax cuts and his deregulation cuts the reason for the increases in jobs under Trump? I mean, probably not, since the increase in jobs and the decrease in unemployment were both steady for years before and after the 2017 Trump tax cut. Like I said, there’s a delay in results from implementation of new laws and so on — but nothing changed until 2020, when the unemployment rate skyrocketed because of the pandemic. So I don’t see “all the new jobs” coming from the tax cut and deregulation push from the Trump administration — said deregulation push having been largely stopped by the courts, and largely reversed by Biden. And as I commented earlier, I have no idea why Biden gets no credit for bounceback jobs: people who were out of work are back at work, and if the economy were worse off than it is, that wouldn’t be true; so if the President gets any credit for economic progress under his administration, then Biden should get credit for the jobs after the pandemic. (If Trump wanted credit for them, he should have won the election. [Also, he does give himself credit for the recovered “bounceback” jobs that returned during 2020, while he was in office.]) The inflation rate comment is false (“Almost no inflation” maybe, okay), though certainly the inflation rate was MUCH higher under Biden than under Trump: it was 1.4% in January 2021 when Biden took office, immediately went up to 5% by May, and the rate peaked at 9.1% in June 2022.

As for the Afghanistan withdrawal, which Trump keeps hitting Biden about, everyone should know that Trump negotiated it, not Biden. Biden abided by the agreement Trump signed with the Taliban. Maybe he shouldn’t have — the Taliban hadn’t kept up their end of the deal — but it’s pretty goddamn sticky to discard your predecessor’s treaties and deals, and to escalate tensions by so doing. Only an asshole would do something like that. More to the point, Trump set up the problems with the withdrawal by negotiating only with the Taliban, not the Afghan government, and not setting enough conditions on the withdrawal of troops, just dropping a hard date for the total withdrawal, which made it impossible to accomplish the task smoothly — or as Trump put it, getting out with “dignity, strength, and power.” If Chump had wanted to make that happen himself, he should have negotiated a withdrawal date before he left office — or else won the election.

I’m not going to comment on the most embarrassing day in the history of our country’s life. But I will post this link.

I don’t want to go through the whole debate, but largely it was like this: Biden answered the question — often shading the truth to benefit himself, sometimes speaking straightforward untruths — while Trump straight-out lied, often avoiding the question while continuing to make shit up about migrants and inflation and Biden’s effect on the US’s international reputation. Here’s a detailed fact check that is worth at least skimming, to see the difference in the candidates’ truthiness.

It is definitely worth noting, without using it to excuse all of Biden’s lapses, that Trump was certainly guilty of using the Gish Gallop to overwhelm Biden with bullshit: and it is particularly effective against an opponent with a stutter, who may get frozen in trying to respond to all of the lies all at once, and being unable to pick a specific starting point while also providing a substantive answer of their own. And, of course, the CNN moderators’ choice to not fact check anyone on anything certainly helped Trump more than Biden, since Trump uses bullshit more often and far more aggressively than Biden.

Let’s just finish up this piece with one more question: the question Trump got about accepting the results of the election. As he failed to do the last time he lost, in 2020, and as he essentially did when he won, persistently claiming that he won the popular vote if you don’t count the illegal votes, which of course do not exist.

DANA BASH:  To you, a specific concern that voters have about you. Will you pledge tonight that once all legal challenges have been exhausted that you will accept the results of this election regardless of who wins and you will say right now that political violence in any form is unacceptable?

TRUMP:  Well, I shouldn’t have to say that, but, of course, I believe that. It’s totally unacceptable.

TRUMP:  And if you would see my statements that I made on Twitter at the time, and also my statement that I made in the Rose Garden, you would say it’s one of the strongest statements you’ve ever seen.

In addition to the speech I made, in front of, I believe, the largest crowd I’ve ever spoken to, and I will tell you, nobody ever talks about that. They talk about a relatively small number of people that went to the Capitol. And in many cases were ushered in by the police.

And as Nancy Pelosi said, it was her responsibility, not mine. She said that loud and clear.

But the answer is, if the election is fair free, and I want that more than anybody.

And I’ll tell you something – I wish he was a great president because I wouldn’t be here right now. I’d be at one of my many places enjoying myself. I wouldn’t be under indictment because I wouldn’t have been his political appoint – you know, opponent. Because he indicted me because I was his opponent.

I wish he was a great president. I would rather have that.

I wouldn’t be here. I don’t mind being here, but the only reason I’m here is he’s so bad as a president that I’m going to make America great again. We’re going to make America great again.

We’re a failing nation right now. We’re a seriously failing nation. And we’re a failing nation because of him.

His policies are so bad. His military policies are insane. They’re insane.

These are wars that will never end with him. He will drive us into World War Three and we’re closer to World War Three than anybody can imagine. We are very, very close to World War Three, and he’s driving us there.

And Kim Jong-Un, and President Xi of China – Kim Jong-Un of North Korea, all of these – Putin – they don’t respect him. They don’t fear him. They have nothing going with this gentleman and he’s going to drive us into World War Three.

BIDEN:  If you want a World War Three, let him follow (ph) and win, and let Putin say, do what you want to NATO – just do what you want.

There’s a thing called Article Five, an attack on one is attack on all, a required response.

The idea – the idea – I can’t think of a single major leader in the world who wouldn’t trade places with what job I’ve done and what they’ve done because we are a powerful nation, we have wonderful piece (ph), because of the people, not me, because of the American people. They’re capable of anything and they step up when they’re needed.

And right now, we’re needed. We’re needed to protect the world because our own safety is at stake.

And again, you want to have war, just let Putin go ahead and take Kyiv, make sure they move on, see what happens in Poland, Hungary, and other places along that border. Then you have a war.

BASH:  President Trump, as I come back to you for a follow-up. The question was, will you accept the results of this election regardless of who wins?

TRUMP:  Just to finish what he said, if I might, Russia – they took a lot of land from Bush. They took a lot of land from Obama and Biden. They took no land, nothing from Trump, nothing.

He knew not to do it. He’s not going to play games with me. He knew that. I got along with him very well, but he knew not to play games.

He took nothing from me, but now, he’s going to take the whole thing from this man right here.

That’s a war that should have never started. It would’ve never started ever with me. And he’s going to take Ukraine and, you know, you asked me a question before, would you do this with – he’s got us in such a bad position right now with Ukraine and Russia because Ukraine’s not winning that war.

He said, I will never settle until such time – they’re running out of people, they’re running out of soldiers, they’ve lost so many people. It’s so sad.

They’ve lost so many people and they’ve lost those gorgeous cities with the golden domes that are 1,000-years-old, all because of him and stupid decisions.

Russia would’ve never attacked if I were president.

BASH:  President Trump, the question was, will you accept the results of the election regardless of who wins? Yes or no, please?

TRUMP:  If it’s a fair and legal and good election – absolutely. I would have much rather accepted these but the fraud and everything else was ridiculous that if you want, we’ll have a news conference on it in a week or we’ll have another one of these on – in a week.

But I will absolutely – there’s nothing I’d rather do. It would be much easier for me to do that than I’m running again. I wasn’t really going to run until I saw the horrible job he did. He’s destroying our country.

I would be very happy to be someplace else, in a nice location someplace. And again, no indictments, no political opponent’s stuff, because it’s the only way he thinks he can win.

But unfortunately, it’s driven up by numbers and driven it up to a very high level, because the people understand it.

BIDEN:  Let’s see what your numbers are when this election is over.

TRUMP:  We’ll see.

BIDEN:  Let’s see. You’re a whiner. When you lost the first time, you continued to appeal and appeal to courts all across the country.

Not one single court in America said any of your claims had any merit, state or local, none.

But you continue to promote this lie about somehow there’s all this misrepresentation, all the stealing. There’s no evidence of that at all.

And I tell you what? I doubt whether you’ll accept it because you’re such a whiner. The idea if you lose again, you’re accepting anything, you can’t stand the loss. Something snapped in you when you lost the last time.

So let’s be fair: he said, directly, that political violence is unacceptable. But he also said that “only a very few people were involved in the insurrection on January 6th: “They talk about a relatively small number of people that went to the Capitol. And in many cases were ushered in by the police.” And he misrepresented his part in what happened, telling them to fight like hell if they wanted to still have a country, taking three hours to post any kind of statement while people were suffering and dying in political violence instigated in his name. And no matter how clearly Bash asked for his simple yes or no answer, he would only agree to accept the results conditionally, according to his own estimation of those results — which means, of course, that he won’t accept those results, as he continued to reject the 2020 results even in these same answers about accepting the 2024 results.

That is Donald Trump’s substance: lies, misdirection, and the promise of violence in opposition to democracy.

Now go back and read what Joe Biden said here. That’s substance.

This last Thursday, we saw more of Joe Biden’s substance in his press conference after the NATO summit. And yes, he fucked up twice: he called Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy “President Putin,” and he called Vice President Harris “Vice President Trump.” But please let us not think that he was actually confused who he was talking about: he caught and corrected himself on the Putin/Zelenskyy mistake, and though he never did on the Harris/Trump one, he talked about “her” qualifications to be Vice President and also President if it was necessary — he was not confused about who his Vice President is, or who the president of Ukraine is. In terms of screwing up names? Come on. I have called students by the wrong names more times than I can count. Students have addressed me with the name of literally every other male teacher I have ever worked with. Every administrator I have ever had has called me Mr. Humphreys. I had a student call me “Mom” once. This is not indicative of cognitive decline, it’s just a slip: it’s just appearance, nothing substantive. It’s a joke, a meme. Make fun of him for it: but don’t pretend it says anything about Biden’s ability to run the country. What, are we afraid that he’ll give the order to launch nuclear weapons, but instead of saying “Attack Russia,” he’ll say, “Attack Rhode Island?” And the nukes will be in the air before he realizes the mistake? Please.

Apart from his gaffes (And has been pointed out by many pundits, Biden has always been prone to gaffes: because he’s a shitty candidate and always has been.), Biden spent an hour answering questions, which he did not have in advance, from various reporters, many of whom asked him directly about how fucked up he was and if he would step aside for someone younger and if he thought he was too decrepit to finish his term — I mean, I’m a pacifist, and some of those questions would have had me yelling “COME AT ME BRO!” The rest of the questions were about serious foreign policy issues, and Biden answered them in detail. Exhaustive detail. Without notes. Without freezing. Without losing his train of thought, though as always, because he stutters, he paused a lot, stumbled and restarted, and often fell back on familiar phrases like “Here’s the deal” and counting out his points and so on. He sounded old, certainly: but he sounded like a man who knew his shit.

Because he is. He does.

All right, so if he knws his shit, what actually happened at the debate? I mean, he was so much worse that night than he was at the press conference, or at the State of the Union: or even how he was at the Biden watch party he visited immediately after getting his ass kicked by the actual worst President we’ve ever had. Why did he freeze so badly? Why did he sound so incoherent, so weak and halting even apart from his stutter? Why did he stand there with his mouth hanging open? Why did he shuffle out onto the stage like a dead man on marionette strings?

Is he actually too old and too incapable to be President for the next four years? For real: is he?

The truth is, I don’t know. Neither do you. Neither does Joe Biden. If he maintains what he can do now, then he can make it; his other appearances over the last two weeks and his substance in the debate both show that. But can he maintain his current level of ability? How far and how fast will he decline? His decline from the State of the Union to the debate was precipitous: but so was his climb back up for the events following it. So which is indicative of his real ability?

I don’t want to get into personal details about people in my life, but let me just say this: I have watched people go through very serious declines, physically and mentally. And I have watched some of those people — but not others — return to a better state, to more capable versions of themselves, after those serious declines. It is impossible to predict, in the absence of an actual diagnosis of something like Alzheimer’s or Parkinson’s, how someone will progress or regress cognitively. We do not understand the human mind, not at all. Believe that.

The fact that Biden came back and gave better answers, and had more energy, by the end of the debate, shows me that his worst moments are not his only moments, not his full capacity, even if he was talking about fucking golf. His performance at the NATO summit press conference shows me that he still has quite a lot of ability to do the things that are necessary for doing his job — even if he can’t get people’s fucking names right.

I think there is a genuine decline in his cognitive ability. That “We beat Medicare” answer was honestly shocking to watch. But let’s look at reality: the Presidency is not a one-man show. He is surrounded by other people, aides and advisors and cabinet members and other political leaders, military leaders: all the goddamn time. People who are not undergoing cognitive decline. While the President makes the final call in critical circumstances, it’s not like standing up on stage during a debate: he is never put on the spot, with millions watching him, under a time clock, with his enemy standing twenty feet away, when he has to make a decision about peace and war, or about declaring a national emergency, or anything else that the President has to do. It’s never a situation where a man freezing for ten seconds would change the outcome. Never. Someone (I would expect it to be Kamala Harris, but I’m sure there are others) might have to grab his lapels, shake him, slap his cheek and yell “SNAP OUT OF IT, MAN!” like in some 1950s melodrama; but more realistically, Ol’ Shaky Joe would be given time enough, support enough, rest enough, and everything else he needs, to make any one specific critical decision. So long as he can come back to his ability to think and reason, to understand and — not even remember, just be reminded of the important points, hold them in his mind long enough to make a decision — then he can do the parts of the job that really matter. He’ll still be able to give shitty speeches, as shown by the several he has given since the debate. He’ll still be able to meet with foreign dignitaries, even if he just gets marionetted out for a handshake and a brief appearance at a state dinner — don’t think he’d be the first or the only world leader who looked like shit when making official presentations. He’ll continue to stumble and freeze in high pressure situations, and that will be awful to watch and make us all feel bad; but Joe Biden has no one to blame but himself for whatever happens to him in his next term, if he wins. If it ruins his legacy, if it makes him the laughingstock of a nation or a world that is focused on appearances, then that’s his goddamn fault. I think we can pretty safely say that LITERALLY EVERYONE has told him to step aside: he is the only one who decided to keep in this race. The only one. I will not feel bad for anything he goes through as he slowly destroys himself trying to do the hardest job in the world for four more years, at his age.

That doesn’t matter: what matters is how his next term, if he stays in and if he wins, will affect the rest of us. As I said, I do not believe that any critical decision will be wrongly made, or be unmade, by a man who makes the slips that Biden makes: because he never acts alone. I do not believe for a second that Biden stuttering, or freezing, or stumbling when he walks, makes Putin more likely to invade another country. Makes Hamas more likely to murder Israelis, or Netanyahu more likely to commit genocide against the Palestinian people. I do not believe for a second that anyone in this world will consider both the horrifying things that this country has done around the world, for decades if not centuries, things we continue to do — and look at Joe Biden looking confused on stage, and think, “Yep, THAT GUY is the reason I don’t respect the US any more.” No. We fool ourselves into thinking we are respected and loved. We are not. We are hated and feared. And we should be: we are selfish, and greedy, and callous, and destructive, and violent, and in every way appalling, to every other people and country on this Earth, and indeed to the Earth itself. We’ll destroy anything and everything for our immediate profit or pleasure.

Please understand that the United States, on the international scene, is Donald Trump. And we always have been.

And that’s why we must not elect Donald Trump. Why we must not double down on our own worst tendencies by giving the epitome of this country’s narcissistic arrogance the power to direct our actions and influence our society and our government for the next four years. Or for longer, if he has his way.

We’re like Joe Biden: we’re pretty shitty, and we’ve always been pretty shitty: but we can get better, or we can get worse. Donald Trump cannot get better.

The final point is this: if Biden wins, and then his cognitive and physical decline reaches the point where he genuinely cannot do the job any more, we have a system in place whereby he can be replaced, by his vice president. Since Kamala Harris would be the automatic frontrunner if Biden did step aside: all we’re risking with Biden now is however long he can last in the office before he can’t, and then we get President Harris, as we hopefully would if Biden were to drop out. If he stays in — and he’s staying in — then we get President Biden, as we have him now, for some period of time up to four years; then we automatically get President Harris.

If Biden wins.

The issue is not whether Joe Biden can do the job: he can (because he has and he is, right now), until he can’t, and then he would have an immediate successor in place who would certainly do a fine job, if not the best job anyone could do. The issue is whether Joe Biden can beat Donald Trump. And that’s not actually up to him: that’s up to us.

There’s the real question, and I’ll leave you with it — because like my above questions, I don’t know the answer.

Do we still have the cognitive capacity to win the election? To make the right choice, no matter how much we dislike the options, no matter how many concerns we may have for the future? Do we recognize the real risks at stake here, the real harm that could be done because of how we vote in November?

I guess we’ll see.